Strictly For The Optimists
We are still not out of reckoning my friends. There still is a possibility for us to scrape through. We have three more League matches remaining. Following should happen in those matches:
1.Cape Cobra Vs Victoria Bushrangers: We want VB to register as emphatic win as possible.
2.Cape Cobra Vs Delhi Daredevils: We want Delhi Daredevils to win, but not by a huge margin.
3.Delhi Daredevils Vs RCB: We, of course want us to win by a huge margin.
To summarize, we would want Victoria Bushrangers to finish with 6 points while the other three teams to finish on 2 points each. Even after that we need net run-rate to favor us.
Stranger things have happened in cricket and in real life.
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@Nachiekt, Yes, that would be good. Besides, we are bored seeing RCB batting first everytime.
@Blogger I agree. I just took a chance - 'if Blogger doesn't notice or point out, I am through' ;-)
Cheers
Let's close it hear. We can continue discussing on mail. You can mail me prashantdhanke@gmail.com for clarifications :).
Here's a reply to your points :
1. In VB vs CC match, if VB looses, then CC & VB both would be on 4 points. We are on zero points tight now and the maximum we can reach is two. Doesn't matter which teams makes it to the semis, we are gone.
2.And you cannot add 0.25 + 0.0625 because the events through which the probabilities are arrived are not mututally exclusive. For example 3b cannot happen without 2a happening. Adding these two is wrong, rationally/theoretically.
But I do hope that Manmohan Singh invites me for the purpose :).
I am HUGELY impressed by your command over "exact mathematics". You've really hit the Bullz I !
I've never been good at 'exactness'. I'm a 'throw the ball in the right direction - even if the ball lands in keeper's gloves after one bounce, there's a chance of run out' kind of guy.
Because I don't have the horse power to throw from the boundary line straight over the wicket!
:)
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THIS PART IS ONLY FOR @BLOGGER! WEAK HEARTED STAY AWAY!!
1. Before the VB vs CC match begins, chances of RCB being in the reckoning is 50% (bcoz VB has to win). If VB loses, CL is over for RCB before the first ball is bowled.
2. If VB wins, following possibilities:
a) RCB beats DD (0.5)
b) DD beaths VB (0.5)
For both a) and b) to happen, probability = 0.5*0.5 = .25 (or 25% in layman's language)
3. To this consider the following 'independent' events:
a) VB beats CC by BIG margin (0.5)
b) RCB beats DD by BIG margin (0.5)
c) DD beats CC by a "tricky" margin (enough to throw CC out, not enough to throw RCB out) (0.25)
Since the 3 are mutually exclusive, the probability of all 3 happening is 0.5*0.5*0.25 = 0.0625
Total probability of RCB making it = 0.25 + 0.625 = 0.3125 or 31.25%
This is by the process of "syllogism" (aka BS!) or "ratiocination" as Quintessence once put it.
Incidentally, our Blogger could soon become "Adviser to Dr Manmohan Singh" on "The Economics of Cricket" especially in the light of so much criticism within and outside cricketing circles on monies being paid to cricketers. If you do accept that job, you've to forget "free beer" which you are enjoying now!
Cheers
I guess friends, it is time to look forward towards IPL 2010 and back our team to win there. The format of IPL allows teams to come back and doesn't punish so severely for a couple of losses.
At the same time, if we do go through to the next level in CL, then take it as a blessing and win the trophy :).
Besides being a cricket and RCB fan, I am also a mathematician. In fact, I have chucked the calls from IIMs to do a B.Sc. in Maths & Economics from London School of Economics, so that I can put a mathematician's degree with my name :).
Hence kindly bear with the following explanation, which I assure you is correct, coming from someone who does econometrics and statistical analysis as a hobby :
1. If we assume all teams are equally capable , each team can win or loose with 0.5 probability. We need two VB wins and 1 RCB win. THe probability of that happening = =.5*0.5*0.5 = 1/8 or 12.5 % .
2. 12.5 would have been the realistic probability, but for the extra erquirements on net-tun rate which is very much against us due to the big defeat yesterday.
3. I am an optimist and hence used the words "If I were a bookie" to tell 1:20 odds. Saying 1:20 odds is telling that the 12.5% has been brought down to nearly to 5% to accomodate the stringent requirement of run-rate. A bookie would not expect RCB to finish off DD in 15 overs :). Raghu haleved his probability due to run-rate. If we do that to the correct answer 12.5%, it comes to 6.25 % :).
Even if we trust RCB with super-powers, and assume that they would bowl out DD for zero runs, we still have 0.5*0.5= 25% chance.
I am not being a pessimist at all friends in the above analysis. The situation explained above is the reality :).
If one really wants to have a go at being optimistic, then one whould put the chance at 100% :).