I take a bow to the likes of Chief and Raghu! Guru ho bhai tum log!!!

@Raghu, Hee Hee :). Nice tease .

@Nachiekt, Yes, that would be good. Besides, we are bored seeing RCB batting first everytime.

@nachiket I agree that in the next match we should chase. Chasing is the best way to take control over the margin of victory.

@Blogger I agree. I just took a chance - 'if Blogger doesn't notice or point out, I am through' ;-)

Cheers

RCB MUST ALWAYS CHASE... bowling is too bad to defend any total..

A line in the first point got cutin my previous commnet.. But there too,even though you said correctly that if VB looses we are gone,the calculation to 0.5*0.5 is wrong at this momnet because VB hasn't lost yet. :) So you to multiply the first one also by 0.25 .
Let's close it hear. We can continue discussing on mail. You can mail me prashantdhanke@gmail.com for clarifications :).

@Raghu,

Here's a reply to your points :

1. In VB vs CC match, if VB looses, then CC & VB both would be on 4 points. We are on zero points tight now and the maximum we can reach is two. Doesn't matter which teams makes it to the semis, we are gone.

2.And you cannot add 0.25 + 0.0625 because the events through which the probabilities are arrived are not mututally exclusive. For example 3b cannot happen without 2a happening. Adding these two is wrong, rationally/theoretically.

But I do hope that Manmohan Singh invites me for the purpose :).

@Blogger

I am HUGELY impressed by your command over "exact mathematics". You've really hit the Bullz I !

I've never been good at 'exactness'. I'm a 'throw the ball in the right direction - even if the ball lands in keeper's gloves after one bounce, there's a chance of run out' kind of guy.

Because I don't have the horse power to throw from the boundary line straight over the wicket!

:)
------------------------------------------------

THIS PART IS ONLY FOR @BLOGGER! WEAK HEARTED STAY AWAY!!

1. Before the VB vs CC match begins, chances of RCB being in the reckoning is 50% (bcoz VB has to win). If VB loses, CL is over for RCB before the first ball is bowled.

2. If VB wins, following possibilities:

a) RCB beats DD (0.5)
b) DD beaths VB (0.5)

For both a) and b) to happen, probability = 0.5*0.5 = .25 (or 25% in layman's language)

3. To this consider the following 'independent' events:

a) VB beats CC by BIG margin (0.5)
b) RCB beats DD by BIG margin (0.5)
c) DD beats CC by a "tricky" margin (enough to throw CC out, not enough to throw RCB out) (0.25)

Since the 3 are mutually exclusive, the probability of all 3 happening is 0.5*0.5*0.25 = 0.0625

Total probability of RCB making it = 0.25 + 0.625 = 0.3125 or 31.25%


This is by the process of "syllogism" (aka BS!) or "ratiocination" as Quintessence once put it.

Incidentally, our Blogger could soon become "Adviser to Dr Manmohan Singh" on "The Economics of Cricket" especially in the light of so much criticism within and outside cricketing circles on monies being paid to cricketers. If you do accept that job, you've to forget "free beer" which you are enjoying now!


Cheers

Also, if it rains in any of the other two matches, we are gone, no matter how badly we defeat DD.
I guess friends, it is time to look forward towards IPL 2010 and back our team to win there. The format of IPL allows teams to come back and doesn't punish so severely for a couple of losses.
At the same time, if we do go through to the next level in CL, then take it as a blessing and win the trophy :).

@Raghu & Yoga,
Besides being a cricket and RCB fan, I am also a mathematician. In fact, I have chucked the calls from IIMs to do a B.Sc. in Maths & Economics from London School of Economics, so that I can put a mathematician's degree with my name :).
Hence kindly bear with the following explanation, which I assure you is correct, coming from someone who does econometrics and statistical analysis as a hobby :

1. If we assume all teams are equally capable , each team can win or loose with 0.5 probability. We need two VB wins and 1 RCB win. THe probability of that happening = =.5*0.5*0.5 = 1/8 or 12.5 % .

2. 12.5 would have been the realistic probability, but for the extra erquirements on net-tun rate which is very much against us due to the big defeat yesterday.

3. I am an optimist and hence used the words "If I were a bookie" to tell 1:20 odds. Saying 1:20 odds is telling that the 12.5% has been brought down to nearly to 5% to accomodate the stringent requirement of run-rate. A bookie would not expect RCB to finish off DD in 15 overs :). Raghu haleved his probability due to run-rate. If we do that to the correct answer 12.5%, it comes to 6.25 % :).

Even if we trust RCB with super-powers, and assume that they would bowl out DD for zero runs, we still have 0.5*0.5= 25% chance.
I am not being a pessimist at all friends in the above analysis. The situation explained above is the reality :).

If one really wants to have a go at being optimistic, then one whould put the chance at 100% :).

For the statistically inclined, More that 76.543% of stats are made on the spot ;). This one included..heheh!

@YogaN I agree that we just need to enjoy the game.

We are on a long drive (in the RCB Bus!) with low fuel - just estimating how far we can go and whether we will find a gas station before we run out.

Unfortunately, we are not allowed to change to 'any other bus' to enjoy the game bcoz we claim to be True RCB Fans

It takes all types to make the RCB Community :) Else there will be no one to blog or read the blog or comment on the blog! Especially when the Blogger did not have the pleasure of 'just a pint of beer' last night ;-)

Cheers

U r spending too much time with the staticians/ analysts chief!If ifs and bits were pots and pans, there would be no tinkers ;)So enjoy the game and let the stats evolve as a byproduct :)

@Blogger

We are expected to be Optimists! as you yourself have put it!! So I thought:

3 BIG thins have to happen - Cobras losing, RCB winning and Cobras losing again!

Assuming all tams are "equally capable of doing it on their day", it is 33% !!

If we have to be realistic, I would put it at 16.5% (You call it 1:6 ? I've never been able to understand the bookies way of calculating! though it has been my lifelong resolution to understand!!

'Realistic' would mean winning against DD, but "huge" margin may not be easy. This will "halve" our chances and make it 16.5%

Don't take all these numbers as "absolute". It is all relative to one another. It is like saying "the distance from my house to Kumble's house is half the distance from my house to your house"!

The Pessimist, of course, thinks he already knows more than us and puts it at 1:20

Lets keep our fingers crossed - hopes are alive for at least another 30 hours!

:)

Hi Raghu,
I am afraid we can't say that the probability is 33% right now for us.
Assuming that all teams are can win or loose with equal probability (50%), we need three favorable result. This comes down to 1/8=12.5% chance. Add to that, the extra requirements of run-rates, I would put the odds somewhere near 1:20 if I were a bookie today. :(

Hope!! we Hope for the best!!!!!
RCB will emerge victorious !

Interestingly the Cobras vs Bushrangers match is just before RCB vs DD match tomorrow. If Cobras win, we are out. Let's hope Bushrangers will win. Sometimes we have to take the side of our "enemy" :)

Regardless of whether we make it or not, RCB should beat DD. This will give RCB a big psychological advantage when IPL3 begins.

If Cobras lose and RCB wins tomorrow, on 19th DD should beat Cobras. The only way to make this happen is by winning against DD tomorrow - it will become an "izzat ka sawal" for VS, GG and they will beat Cobras :)

There are 6 uncertainties:
1. VB sdould beat CC
2. VB should beat CC by a BIG margin
3. RCB should beat DD (under RCB's control)
4. RCB should beat DD by a BIG margin (under RCB's control)
5. DD should beat CC
6. DD should beat CC by a margin such that RCB's NRR will be higher than DD and CC

This gives RCB a 33% chance as of now; as events unfold, the % gets clearer (and hopefully higher!).

We are in the ICU, on every kind of life support system. Let's hope the doctors at Mallya Hospital do a great job!! Pray!!!

:)

Raghu

dude....
i still believe RC has a chance to get into the semis. But for that they have to go through a big litmus test and stun their opponents and the entire world that they are capable enough to beat any team.
Let's forget everything.Forget about Bushrangers.Forget about Daredevils.Forget about Cobras.Even I say forget about the champions league.Just take the upcoming match as do or die match and give their everything on the match.. I believe if each player delivers his cent percent on the field and can play the match of their life in the upcoming match then no one can stop RCB from the victory.According to me RCB should move with this attitude and leave the rest to the destiny.So the mantra for the next match is:-
Play for glory and play for more....
so the next match will be the test of character of the players of RCB and there is no doubt on that that RCB is a unit of full of strong characters.
So GO RCB and shake the nation with a victory....